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The problem is that freezing rain caused Portland to come to a standstill, but in Canada, that’s just an annoying day with elevated rates of accidents.

In Texas, a light breeze takes out the entire state, whereas in Canada, most of our workforce is expected to at try to continue working after a 20 inch snow dump the night before.

I hope you can see how there’s reason to being pedantic.

If level 5 is all conditions human drivers do regularly for day to day activities, 2030 is an idiotic bet and anyone not living in a bubble could see that.



A lot of that doesn't have anything to do with cars or drivers, but is rather about city infrastructure.

Does the city own a fleet of snowplows? Does it keep massive stores of road salt available? Do schools and offices even have heating systems at all?

On the other hand, driving carefully on snow and ice is a skill in itself that has to be learned. And in snowy places I do know people who simply don't drive in some conditions because they're well aware they don't have those skills, even growing up there -- while others enjoy the challenge. So that part is a fair question of which humans we're talking about when we talk about human-level driving skill.


Regardless of city infrastructure, I've seen schools in North Carolina close after a light snow (like a few millimiters). In Stockholm this winter I regularly feel my car drifting when entering roundabouts, and a lot of roads have transformed from 2-lane streets into 1.5-lane streets.

> So that part is a fair question of which humans we're talking about when we talk about human-level driving skill.

These California-based companies assume everywhere is California, and still want to release those cars internationally.


It doesn't even have to be snow. Heavy thunderstorms can close schools too.


Did you typo "light freeze?" Texas does terribly with ice but it is regularly windy as hell here, among the windiest of all US states. Even when a tornado tore up three miles of North Dallas a few years ago, it didn't take out even the local traffic, let alone the whole state.


There's an additional aspect however: on days with e.g. freezing rain, human drivers might risk it, but companies like Waymo will probably decide to play it safe and not let their taxis run, because they know how much bad publicity an accident would be...


In that case, SAE Level 5 driving may have a place for “sub-division” by weather, the same way that CAT-III ILS offers a range of operation options based on visibility.




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